Seit Wann Gibt Es Islam

Why Muslims Are increasing Fastest und the Unaffiliated space Shrinking as a Share of the world Population


The religious profile des the world is rapidly changing, pushed primarily by differences bei fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world’s significant religions, as well as von people convert faiths. Over the next four decades, Christians wollen remain die largest religious group, but Islam möchte grow much faster than any other major religion. If existing trends continue, von 2050 …

The number of Muslims wollen nearly equal the number of Christians around ns world.Atheists, agnostics and other civilization who do not affiliate through any religion – though increasing bei countries together as die United States and France – wollen make trost a decreasing share von the world’s total population.The global Buddhist population will it is in about die same dimension it was bei 2010, while ns Hindu und Jewish populations wollen be bigger than they are today.In Europe, Muslims möchte make up 10% des the all at once population.India wollen retain a Hindu bulk but so will schutz the largest Muslim population of any type of country in the world, surpassing Indonesia.In ns United States, Christians wollen decline from much more than three-quarters von the population bei 2010 kommen sie two-thirds in 2050, and Judaism will no longer be ns largest non-Christian religion. Muslims will be much more numerous an the U.S. Than world who determine as Jewish on the base of religion.Four out of every 10 Christians bei the world will live in sub-Saharan Africa.

Du schaust: Seit wann gibt es islam

These are among the global religious patterns highlighted in new demography projections von the Pew research Center. Ns projections take right into account ns current size und geographic distribution von the world’s major religions, age differences, fertility and mortality rates, international migration and patterns an conversion.

As des 2010, Christianity was über far die world’s biggest religion, with an estimated 2.2 exchange rate adherents, nearly a dritter (31%) des all 6.9 billion human being on Earth. Islam was second, with 1.6 exchange rate adherents, or 23% von the globalen population.

If current demographic trends continue, however, Islam möchte nearly catch up by the middle von the 21st century. Betwee 2010 and 2050, ns world’s total population is expected to rise zu 9.3 billion, a 35% increase.1 over that same period, Muslims – a comparatively youthful population with high fertility prices – room projected zu increase von 73%. Die number des Christians deshalb is projected to rise, but an ext slowly, weist about the same price (35%) as die global population overall.

As a result, according to ns Pew study projections, von 2050 there wollen be close to parity between Muslims (2.8 billion, or 30% des the population) and Christians (2.9 billion, or 31%), possibly weil das the erste time in history.2

With die exception des Buddhists, all of the world’s significant religious teams are poised zum at the very least some growth in absolute numbers bei the comes decades. The globalen Buddhist population is expected kommen sie be fairly stable because des low fertility rates und aging populations an countries such as China, Thailand and Japan.

Worldwide, the Hindu population is projected kommen sie rise über 34%, native a little over 1 billion zu nearly 1.4 billion, approximately keeping pace with overall population growth. Jews, die smallest spiritual group zum which separate projections to be made, space expected zu grow 16%, native a little less 보다 14 million in 2010 kommen sie 16.1 million worldwide bei 2050.


Adherents des various individual religions – including African timeless religions, Chinese people religions, native American religions and Australian aboriginal religions – room projected kommen sie increase von 11%, indigenous 405 million kommen sie nearly 450 million.

And all various other religions combined – an umbrella group that contains Baha’is, Jains, Sikhs, Taoists and many smaller faiths – space projected to increase 6%, from a total des approximately 58 million zu more 보다 61 million over die same period.3

While growing bei absolute size, however, people religions, Judaism und “other religions” (the umbrella classification considered as a whole) will notfall keep tempo with global population growth. Each of these groups zu sein projected to make hoch a smaller sized percentage des the world population in 2050 보다 it did an 2010.4


Similarly, ns religiously unaffiliated population is projected zu shrink together a percentage des the globalen population, even though it will increase in absolute number. Bei 2010, censuses and surveys indicate, there were around 1.1 exchange rate atheists, agnostics and people who do not identify with any certain religion.5 von 2050, the unaffiliated population is expected zu exceed 1.2 billion. But, as a share of all die people an the world, those v no religious affiliation room projected zu decline indigenous 16% an 2010 to 13% über the middle des this century.

At ns same time, however, the unaffiliated are expected zu continue zu increase as a share von the population an much of Europe und North America. Bei the vereinigt States, weil das example, the unaffiliated are projected zu grow from in estimated 16% des the total population (including children) an 2010 kommen sie 26% an 2050.

As die example von the unaffiliated shows, there möchte be vivid geographic differences bei patterns of religious growth bei the coming decades. One des the taste determinants von that future growth is where each group is geographically focused today. Religions with plenty of adherents in developing countries – wherein birth prices are high, and infant mortality prices generally oase been fall – are likely kommen sie grow quickly. Viel of the worldwide growth des Islam and Christianity, zum example, ist expected zu take place bei sub-Saharan Africa. Today’s religiously unaffiliated population, über contrast, ist heavily concentrated in places with low fertility and aging populations, such as Europe, phibìc America, China and Japan.

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Globally, Muslims oase the highest possible fertility rate, bei average of 3.1 children über woman – well over replacement level (2.1), the minimal typically needed zu maintain a steady population.6 Christians are second, punkt 2.7 children von woman. Hindu fertility (2.4) zu sein similar kommen sie the global average (2.5). Worldwide, Jewish fertility (2.3 children von woman) also is above replacement level. All ns other groups have fertility levels auch low to sustain your populations: folk religions (1.8 children per woman), other religions (1.7), the unaffiliated (1.7) und Buddhists (1.6).

Another necessary determinant des growth ist the present age distribution des each religious group – whether its adherents are mainly young, with their prime childbearing years still ahead, or older and largely past their childbearing years.

In 2010, more than a quarter of the world total population (27%) was under the age des 15. But in even greater percentage des Muslims (34%) und Hindus (30%) to be younger 보다 15, while die share des Christians under 15 matched the global average (27%). These bulging youth populaces are among the reasons that Muslims room projected to grow faster than die world’s as whole population and that Hindus und Christians space projected zu roughly keep tempo with worldwide population growth.

All ns remaining groups schutz smaller-than-average youth populations, und many von them oase disproportionately huge numbers von adherents over ns age des 59. Zum example, 11% von the world’s population was hinweisen least 60 year old an 2010. But fully 20% of Jews around ns world are 60 or older, as room 15% of Buddhists, 14% von Christians, 14% des adherents von other religious beliefs (taken together a whole), 13% des the unaffiliated und 11% von adherents des folk religions. Von contrast, just 7% von Muslims und 8% of Hindus are bei this oldest age category.


In addition to fertility rates und age distributions, spiritual switching is likely kommen sie play a role in the growth des religious groups. Yet conversion patterns are complex and varied. Bei some countries, it zu sein fairly common zum adults kommen sie leave their childhood religion and switch zu another faith. An others, changes in religious identity are rare, legitimate cumbersome or even illegal.

The Pew Research center projections attempt zu incorporate patterns bei religious switching an 70 countries where surveys provide info on die number of people who say lock no longer belong to the religious group an which they were raised. In the projection model, every directions of switching are possible, und they may be partly offsetting. In the vereinigt States, zum example, surveys uncover that some human being who were increased with no spiritual affiliation have switched zu become Christians, if some that grew up as Christians oase switched kommen sie become unaffiliated. These types of patterns are projected zu continue together future generations kommen sie of age. (For more details on how and where switching was modeled, seen the Methodology. For alternative expansion scenarios involving either switching bei additional nations or no switching at all, see Chapter 1.)

Over ns coming decades, Christians room expected zu experience ns largest net losses indigenous switching. Globally, around 40 million world are projected to switch right into Christianity, if 106 million are projected kommen sie leave, with most joining ns ranks des the religiously unaffiliated. (See chart above.)

All told, the unaffiliated are expected kommen sie add 97 million people and lose 36 million über switching, zum a network gain of 61 million von 2050. Modest network gains through switching deshalb are expected zum Muslims (3 million), adherents of folk religions (3 million) and members von other religious beliefs (2 million). Jews are expected zu experience a net loss of about 300,000 human being due kommen sie switching, when Buddhists room expected to lose nearly 3 million.

International migration is another variable that will influence ns projected size des religious groups bei various regions and countries.

Forecasting future migration patterns ist difficult, since migration ist often linked to government policies und international occasions that kann change quickly. Zum this reason, many population projections do not include migration bei their models. But working with researchers weist the international Institute weil das Applied systems Analysis bei Laxenburg, Austria, the Pew Research zentral has developed in innovative way of using säule on past migration patterns zu estimate the religious composition of migrant flows in the decades ahead. (For details on how ns projections were made, see Chapter 1.)

The impact von migration kann sein be seen bei the instances shown an the graph at die right, i m sorry compares forecast scenarios with and without migration bei the areas where that will schutz the greatest impact. An Europe, zum instance, ns Muslim share des the population is expected to increase from 5.9% an 2010 kommen sie 10.2% an 2050 when migration is taken into account along with other demographic determinants that are driving population change, such as fertility rates and age. Without migration, ns Muslim share of Europe’s population bei 2050 is projected zu be practically two portion points reduced (8.4%). In North America, ns Hindu share des the population is expected kommen sie nearly double in the decades ahead, indigenous 0.7% in 2010 kommen sie 1.3% an 2050, wie migration is included an the forecast models. There is no migration, ns Hindu share von the region’s population would stay about the same (0.8%).

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In ns Middle East and North Africa, die continued wandern of Christians right into the six Gulf collaboration Council (GCC) nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia und the blume Arab Emirates) zu sein expected kommen sie offset the exodus of Christians from other countries in the region.7 If wandern were not factored into ns 2050 projections, ns estimated christen share of the region’s population would drop below 3%. With wandern factored in, however, the estimated christen share zu sein expected to be just above 3% (down from almost 4% bei 2010).